Torpedo Vladimir 1–4 Znamya Truda: Result & Stats

Torpedo Vladimir

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Znamya Truda

7/18/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Stadion Torpedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Torpedo Vladimir43%

×Draw26%

Znamya Truda31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo VladimirExpected goals in this matchZnamya Truda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.19

Torpedo Vladimir

1.44

Znamya Truda

1.19

Torpedo Vladimir creates 21% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 68 away

1.28

creates per match

1.07

1.31

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Torpedo Vladimir

1.28

Znamya Truda

1.07

allows per match

Torpedo Vladimir

1.31

Znamya Truda

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Vladimir+0.00on par

Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Vladimir ↓

Znamya Truda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Torpedo Vladimir or draw

69%

Torpedo Vladimir or Znamya Truda

74%

Draw or Znamya Truda

57%

Winning margin

Torpedo Vladimir wins by 2+

21%

Znamya Truda wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Torpedo Vladimir 1+ goals

76%

Torpedo Vladimir 2+ goals

42%

Torpedo Vladimir 3+ goals

18%

Znamya Truda 1+ goals

70%

Znamya Truda 2+ goals

33%

Znamya Truda 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Vladimir (draw refunded)

58%

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Vladimir at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Vladimir attack 1.28 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.44

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Torpedo Vladimir defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Torpedo Vladimir scores more

43%

level

26%

Znamya Truda scores more

31%

Torpedo Vladimir at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Torpedo Vladimir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff