Torpedo Vladimir 4–1 Tver: Result & Stats

Torpedo Vladimir

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tver

I. Zharov 87'

D. Khokhlov 67', 54'

M. Zemskov 6' (pen)

M. Shavel 64'

10/20/2024

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Malaya Sportivmaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Torpedo Vladimir39%

×Draw26%

Tver35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo VladimirExpected goals in this matchTver

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.29

Torpedo Vladimir

1.37

Tver

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 89 away

1.28

creates per match

1.26

1.31

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Torpedo Vladimir

1.28

Tver

1.26

allows per match

Torpedo Vladimir

1.31

Tver

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Vladimir+0.00on par

Tver+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Vladimir ↓

Tver →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Torpedo Vladimir or draw

65%

Torpedo Vladimir or Tver

74%

Draw or Tver

61%

Winning margin

Torpedo Vladimir wins by 2+

18%

Tver wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Torpedo Vladimir 1+ goals

75%

Torpedo Vladimir 2+ goals

40%

Torpedo Vladimir 3+ goals

16%

Tver 1+ goals

72%

Tver 2+ goals

37%

Tver 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Vladimir (draw refunded)

52%

Tver (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Vladimir at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

Tver away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.46 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Vladimir attack 1.28 + Tver defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.37

Tver attack 1.26 + Torpedo Vladimir defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Torpedo Vladimir scores more

39%

level

26%

Tver scores more

35%

Torpedo Vladimir at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Torpedo Vladimir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

M. ZemskovPenalty

54'

D. Khokhlov

62'

I. Zharov← E. Mogilev

64'

M. Shavel

67'

D. Khokhlov

70'

A. Miroshin← S. Tormashev

76'

A. Gharibyan← V. Alyapin

76'

M. Krasilin← V. Ermilov

76'

M. Pilipenko← I. Gritsak

87'

I. Zharov

90+1'

D. Perfilov← N. Gloydman

90+1'

V. Kostryukov← M. Zemskov

Torpedo

Tver

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Zemskov

Manager: D. Evsikov

62'▲I. Zharov←▼E. Mogilev

76'▲A. Gharibyan←▼V. Alyapin

76'▲M. Krasilin←▼V. Ermilov

90+1'▲D. Perfilov←▼N. Gloydman

90+1'▲V. Kostryukov←▼M. Zemskov

Torpedo Vladimir substitutes

ZharovGharibyanKrasilinPerfilovKostryukov

Manager: V. Ternavskiy

70'▲A. Miroshin←▼S. Tormashev

76'▲M. Pilipenko←▼I. Gritsak

Tver substitutes

MiroshinPilipenko

Match Recap: Torpedo Vladimir vs Tver

Torpedo Vladimir beat Tver 4-1 in Second League - Group 2 on October 20, 2024.

Goals: M. Zemskov (6' pen), D. Khokhlov (54', 67'), M. Shavel (64'), I. Zharov (87').

The match was played at Malaya Sportivmaya Arena in Vladimir.

Torpedo Vladimir vs Tver — Second League - Group 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Torpedo Vladimir vs Tver