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Torpedo Vladimir vs Torpedo Moskva II — Second League - Group 2 2020

Torpedo Vladimir
Torpedo Vladimir
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Moskva II
Torpedo Moskva II
11/5/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Malaya Sportivmaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Torpedo Vladimir39%
×Draw27%
Torpedo Moskva II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Vladimir
1.31
Torpedo Moskva II
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 24 away

creates per match

Torpedo Vladimir
1.28
Torpedo Moskva II
1.13

allows per match

Torpedo Vladimir
1.31
Torpedo Moskva II
1.33

finishing

Torpedo Vladimir+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Vladimir ↓

Torpedo Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torpedo Vladimir or draw
66%
Torpedo Vladimir or Torpedo Moskva II
73%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva II
61%

Winning margin

Torpedo Vladimir wins by 2+
17%
Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Torpedo Vladimir 1+ goals
73%
Torpedo Vladimir 2+ goals
38%
Torpedo Vladimir 3+ goals
14%
Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals
70%
Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals
34%
Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Vladimir (draw refunded)
53%
Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Vladimir at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

Torpedo Moskva II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Vladimir attack 1.28 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.13 + Torpedo Vladimir defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Torpedo Vladimir scores more
39%
level
27%
Torpedo Moskva II scores more
34%

Torpedo Vladimir at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Torpedo Vladimir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Torpedo Vladimir 0–0 Torpedo Moskva II

Torpedo Vladimir and Torpedo Moskva II drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 2 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Malaya Sportivmaya Arena in Vladimir.