Torpedo Vladimir 0–2 Kosmos Dolgoprudny

Torpedo Vladimir

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

E. Ponomarev 59' (pen)

M. Abramov 55'

4/6/2025

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Malaya Sportivmaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Torpedo Vladimir41%

×Draw26%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo VladimirExpected goals in this matchKosmos Dolgoprudny

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.25

Torpedo Vladimir

1.43

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

1.25

Torpedo Vladimir creates 14% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 21 away

1.28

creates per match

1.19

1.31

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Torpedo Vladimir

1.28

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

1.19

allows per match

Torpedo Vladimir

1.31

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Vladimir+0.00on par

Kosmos Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Vladimir ↓

Kosmos Dolgoprudny →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Torpedo Vladimir or draw

67%

Torpedo Vladimir or Kosmos Dolgoprudny

74%

Draw or Kosmos Dolgoprudny

59%

Winning margin

Torpedo Vladimir wins by 2+

20%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Torpedo Vladimir 1+ goals

76%

Torpedo Vladimir 2+ goals

42%

Torpedo Vladimir 3+ goals

17%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny 1+ goals

71%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny 2+ goals

36%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Vladimir (draw refunded)

56%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Vladimir at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

Kosmos Dolgoprudny away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Vladimir attack 1.28 + Kosmos Dolgoprudny defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kosmos Dolgoprudny attack 1.19 + Torpedo Vladimir defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Torpedo Vladimir scores more

41%

level

26%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny scores more

33%

Torpedo Vladimir at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Torpedo Vladimir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

22'

29'

34'

46'

55'

55'

59'

E. PonomarevPenalty

77'

I. Zharov←

77'

M. Zemskov← V. Alyapin

77'

M. Khalilov← D. Beskorovaynyi

88'

M. Pykhcheev← E. Ponomarev

88'

F. Solovey← S. Masimov

90+1'

R. Khadzhiev

90+3'

F. Solovey

Torpedo

Kosmos

30

Rebrov

13

⚽

33

18

97

6

17

⚽

▼

Ponomarev

11

▼

Masimov

69

Ershov

14

▼

9

35

45

74

30

17

24

7

42

15

▼

Makoev

13

▼

Alyapin

10

Sychev

Manager: D. Evsikov

46'▲M. Pestov←▼S. Makoev

77'▲I. Zharov←▼—

77'▲M. Zemskov←▼V. Alyapin

Torpedo Vladimir substitutes

16Kulagin27Arslanov72Safronov3Romanenkov58Pestov22Jabbarov25Prusakov11Zharov8Zemskov77Lunev

Manager: A. Proshin

77'▲M. Khalilov←▼D. Beskorovaynyi

88'▲M. Pykhcheev←▼E. Ponomarev

88'▲F. Solovey←▼S. Masimov

Kosmos Dolgoprudny substitutes

85Nazar74Shashkov3Gordeev44Novruzov12Volkov46Belov22Pykhcheev10Radostev8Solovey99Khalilov