Torpedo Vladimir 1–3 Baltika BFU: Result & Stats

Torpedo Vladimir

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Baltika BFU

9/9/2023

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Stadion Torpedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Torpedo Vladimir39%

×Draw26%

Baltika BFU35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo VladimirExpected goals in this matchBaltika BFU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.28

Torpedo Vladimir

1.35

Baltika BFU

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 53 away

1.28

creates per match

1.25

1.31

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Torpedo Vladimir

1.28

Baltika BFU

1.25

allows per match

Torpedo Vladimir

1.31

Baltika BFU

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Vladimir+0.00on par

Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Vladimir ↓

Baltika BFU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Torpedo Vladimir or draw

65%

Torpedo Vladimir or Baltika BFU

74%

Draw or Baltika BFU

61%

Winning margin

Torpedo Vladimir wins by 2+

18%

Baltika BFU wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Torpedo Vladimir 1+ goals

74%

Torpedo Vladimir 2+ goals

39%

Torpedo Vladimir 3+ goals

15%

Baltika BFU 1+ goals

72%

Baltika BFU 2+ goals

37%

Baltika BFU 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Vladimir (draw refunded)

52%

Baltika BFU (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Vladimir at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Vladimir attack 1.28 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.35

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Torpedo Vladimir defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Torpedo Vladimir scores more

39%

level

26%

Baltika BFU scores more

35%

Torpedo Vladimir at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Torpedo Vladimir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff