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Torpedo Moskva vs Tekstilshchik — Friendlies Clubs 2020

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
2 – 2
Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
6/24/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Central'nyj stadion Bronnitsy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Torpedo Moskva53%
×Draw24%
Tekstilshchik24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.75
Tekstilshchik
1.09

Torpedo Moskva creates 61% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
2.38
Tekstilshchik
1.06

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.13
Tekstilshchik
1.11

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Tekstilshchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
76%
Torpedo Moskva or Tekstilshchik
76%
Draw or Tekstilshchik
47%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
29%
Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
83%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
52%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
25%
Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
66%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
30%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
69%
Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Tekstilshchik away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 2.38 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tekstilshchik attack 1.06 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
53%
level
24%
Tekstilshchik scores more
24%

Torpedo Moskva at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Torpedo Moskva 2–2 Tekstilshchik

Torpedo Moskva and Tekstilshchik drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on June 24, 2022.

The match was played at Central'nyj stadion Bronnitsy in Bronnitsy.