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Torpedo Moskva vs Spartak Moscow 2 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
5 – 1
Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
7/10/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Torpedo im. Eduarda Strel'tsova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Torpedo Moskva79%
×Draw13%
Spartak Moscow 28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
3.02
Spartak Moscow 2
0.90

Torpedo Moskva creates 236% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
2.38
Spartak Moscow 2
0.67

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.13
Spartak Moscow 2
3.67

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
92%
Torpedo Moskva or Spartak Moscow 2
87%
Draw or Spartak Moscow 2
21%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
59%
Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
95%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
80%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
57%
Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
59%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
23%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
91%
Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 2.38 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.02

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 0.67 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
79%
level
13%
Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
8%

Torpedo Moskva at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Torpedo Moskva 5–1 Spartak Moscow 2

Torpedo Moskva beat Spartak Moscow 2 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo im. Eduarda Strel'tsova in Moskva.