Torpedo Moskva vs Spartak Moscow 2

Torpedo Moskva

CANC

00:00

Spartak Moscow 2

5/2/2020

First League · Round 35

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Torpedo Moskva50%

×Draw25%

Spartak Moscow 225%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchSpartak Moscow 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.01

Torpedo Moskva

1.56

Spartak Moscow 2

1.01

Torpedo Moskva creates 54% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 75 away

1.56

creates per match

1.16

0.86

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.56

Spartak Moscow 2

1.16

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

0.86

Spartak Moscow 2

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

75%

Torpedo Moskva or Spartak Moscow 2

75%

Draw or Spartak Moscow 2

50%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

26%

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

79%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

46%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

21%

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals

64%

Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals

27%

Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

67%

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.86 · 105 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.57 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.56 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.16 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

50%

level

25%

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more

25%

Torpedo Moskva at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff