Torpedo Moskva vs Ska-khabarovsk

Torpedo Moskva

Preview

16:00

Ska-khabarovsk

11/28/2026

First League · Round 20Arena Khimki

Big match

50%

Torpedo Moskva

model favours

50%27%24%

Torpedo Moskva have won 6 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

58%

under 2.5 goals

46%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Torpedo Moskva50%

×Draw27%

Ska-khabarovsk24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchSka-khabarovsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.92

Torpedo Moskva

1.46

Ska-khabarovsk

0.92

Torpedo Moskva creates 59% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 47 away

1.48

creates per match

0.91

0.93

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.48

Ska-khabarovsk

0.91

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

0.93

Ska-khabarovsk

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

76%

Torpedo Moskva or Ska-khabarovsk

73%

Draw or Ska-khabarovsk

50%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

25%

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

77%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

43%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

18%

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals

60%

Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals

23%

Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

68%

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.93 · 40 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.43 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.48 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ska-khabarovsk attack 0.91 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

50%

level

27%

Ska-khabarovsk scores more

24%

Torpedo Moskva at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in only 20% of Torpedo Moskva’s matches
Torpedo Moskva sit 7, Ska-khabarovsk 17 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Moskva

WWWW

Ska-khabarovsk

LDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff