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Ska-khabarovsk vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
S. Bagiev 51'
8/3/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk41%
×Draw28%
Torpedo Moskva30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.24
Torpedo Moskva
1.02

Ska-khabarovsk creates 22% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 104 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.43
Torpedo Moskva
1.22

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.81
Torpedo Moskva
1.05

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
70%
Ska-khabarovsk or Torpedo Moskva
72%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
59%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
18%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
71%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
35%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
13%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
64%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
27%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
58%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.24

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
41%
level
28%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
30%

Ska-khabarovsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
Egor Noskov
51'
S. Bagiev
62'
R. Chervyakov← A. Chupayov
62'
G. Alykulov← I. Manelov
62'
A. Yushin← D. Shamkin
64'
J. Alcalde← M. Kutovoy
69'
R. Baytukov← V. Moskvichev
75'
A. Gagloev← B. Gurtsiev
75'
J. A. Tur← D. Yanov
76'
E. Danilkin← A. Kostin
90+2'
Ruslan Chervyakov

Statistics

Ska-khabarovskTorpedo
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

First League: Ska-khabarovsk 1–0 Torpedo Moskva

Ska-khabarovsk beat Torpedo Moskva 1-0 in First League on August 3, 2025.

Goals: S. Bagiev (51').

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina in Khabarovsk.