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Torpedo Moskva vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2024

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
Preview
15:00
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
10/24/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Arena Khimki
40%
Torpedo Moskva
model favours
40%29%31%

Torpedo Moskva have won 6 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Torpedo Moskva40%
×Draw29%
Rotor Volgograd31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.21
Rotor Volgograd
1.04

Torpedo Moskva creates 16% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 40 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.48
Rotor Volgograd
1.15

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.93
Rotor Volgograd
0.95

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
69%
Torpedo Moskva or Rotor Volgograd
71%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
60%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
17%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
70%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
34%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
12%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
65%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
28%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
56%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.93 · 40 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.48 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.15 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
40%
level
29%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
31%

Torpedo Moskva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Torpedo Moskva’s matches
  • Rotor Volgograd win just 24% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Moskva
WWWW
Volgograd
LLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torpedo Moskva face Rotor Volgograd (First League)

First League returns with Torpedo Moskva hosting Rotor Volgograd. Match starts October 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Torpedo Moskva host Rotor Volgograd at Arena Khimki.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.