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Torpedo Moskva vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2018

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
M. Maltsev 52'
4/6/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 27Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Torpedo Moskva43%
×Draw29%
Rotor Volgograd28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.25
Rotor Volgograd
0.96

Torpedo Moskva creates 30% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 87 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.55
Rotor Volgograd
1.06

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.85
Rotor Volgograd
0.95

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
72%
Torpedo Moskva or Rotor Volgograd
71%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
57%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
19%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
71%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
36%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
13%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
62%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
25%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
60%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
43%
level
29%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
28%

Torpedo Moskva at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
Dmitriy Prishchepa
46'
V. Galkin← I. Manelov
52'
M. Maltsev
54'
Mario Ćurić
59'
Alesson← G. Alykulov
60'
D. Lavrishchev← I. Kukharchuk
67'
M. Maksimov← Y. Guzmán
67'
R. Netfullin← K. Khosonov
71'
Z. Pliev← I. Safronov
71'
E. Bolotov← M. Maltsev
71'
M. Turishchev← T. Kasimov
73'
E. Sysoev← A. Chupaev
84'
G. Shilnikov← S. Makarov
88'
Nikita Chagrov

Statistics

TorpedoRotor
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

First League: Torpedo Moskva 0–1 Rotor Volgograd

Rotor Volgograd beat Torpedo Moskva 1-0 in First League on April 6, 2025.

Goals: M. Maltsev (52').

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.