Torpedo Moskva vs Rotor Volgograd

Torpedo Moskva

CANC

00:00

Rotor Volgograd

3/29/2020

First League · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Torpedo Moskva43%

×Draw28%

Rotor Volgograd28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.96

Torpedo Moskva

1.27

Rotor Volgograd

0.96

Torpedo Moskva creates 32% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 87 away

1.56

creates per match

1.05

0.86

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.56

Rotor Volgograd

1.05

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

0.86

Rotor Volgograd

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

72%

Torpedo Moskva or Rotor Volgograd

72%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

57%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

20%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

72%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

36%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

14%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

62%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

25%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

61%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.86 · 104 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.56 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.27

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.05 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

43%

level

28%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

28%

Torpedo Moskva at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff