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Torpedo Moskva vs Orenburg — First League 2018

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Orenburg
Orenburg
9/13/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Torpedo Moskva36%
×Draw27%
Orenburg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.25
Orenburg
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 40 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.55
Orenburg
1.70

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.85
Orenburg
0.95

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Orenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
63%
Torpedo Moskva or Orenburg
73%
Draw or Orenburg
64%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
16%
Orenburg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
71%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
36%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
13%
Orenburg 1+ goals
72%
Orenburg 2+ goals
36%
Orenburg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
49%
Orenburg (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

Orenburg away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + Orenburg defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.25

Orenburg attack 1.70 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
36%
level
27%
Orenburg scores more
37%

Orenburg at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Torpedo Moskva 1–2 Orenburg

Orenburg beat Torpedo Moskva 2-1 in First League on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki in Moskva.