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Orenburg vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

Orenburg
Orenburg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
4/2/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 30Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Orenburg47%
×Draw26%
Torpedo Moskva26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg
1.45
Torpedo Moskva
1.01

Orenburg creates 44% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 104 away

creates per match

Orenburg
1.85
Torpedo Moskva
1.22

allows per match

Orenburg
0.80
Torpedo Moskva
1.05

finishing

Orenburg+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Orenburg or draw
74%
Orenburg or Torpedo Moskva
74%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
53%

Winning margin

Orenburg wins by 2+
23%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Orenburg 1+ goals
77%
Orenburg 2+ goals
42%
Orenburg 3+ goals
18%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
64%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
27%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Orenburg (draw refunded)
64%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 40 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg attack 1.85 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.45

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Orenburg defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Orenburg scores more
47%
level
26%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
26%

Orenburg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orenburg vs Torpedo Moskva

Orenburg beat Torpedo Moskva 1-0 in First League on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.