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Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2024

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
Preview
15:00
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
9/12/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Arena Khimki
Big match
37%
Torpedo Moskva
model favours
37%28%36%

Torpedo Moskva have won 6 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Torpedo Moskva37%
×Draw28%
Nizhny Novgorod36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.19
Nizhny Novgorod
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 10 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.48
Nizhny Novgorod
1.40

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.93
Nizhny Novgorod
0.90

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
64%
Torpedo Moskva or Nizhny Novgorod
72%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
63%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
15%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
70%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
33%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
12%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
69%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
33%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
51%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.93 · 40 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.48 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.19

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.40 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
37%
level
28%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
36%

Torpedo Moskva at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Torpedo Moskva’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Moskva
WWWW
Novgorod
WLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Torpedo Moskva host Nizhny Novgorod

September 12, 2026: Torpedo Moskva take on Nizhny Novgorod in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Torpedo Moskva host Nizhny Novgorod at Arena Khimki.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.