Torpedo Moskva 4–2 Nizhny Novgorod: Result & Stats

Torpedo Moskva

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Nizhny Novgorod

2/7/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Torpedo Moskva54%

×Draw21%

Nizhny Novgorod25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.38

Torpedo Moskva

2.13

Nizhny Novgorod

1.38

Torpedo Moskva creates 54% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

2.38

creates per match

1.63

1.13

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

2.38

Nizhny Novgorod

1.63

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.13

Nizhny Novgorod

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

75%

Torpedo Moskva or Nizhny Novgorod

79%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

46%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

33%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

88%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

63%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

35%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

75%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

40%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

69%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 2.38 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.13

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.63 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

54%

level

21%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

25%

Torpedo Moskva at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Torpedo

Nizhny

81

2

16

32

52

8

19

29

78

10

14

25

90

24

4

77

6

27

11

28

7

79

Manager: Oleg Kononov

Manager: Aleksey Shpilevski

Nizhny Novgorod substitutes

51KoshkinBelyaevGurenko11Bedoshvili

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod

Torpedo Moskva beat Nizhny Novgorod 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on February 7, 2026.

Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod — Friendlies Clubs 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod