Torpedo Moskva 0–2 Nizhny Novgorod: Result & Stats

Torpedo Moskva

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Nizhny Novgorod

T. Suleymanov 76'

M. Sultonov 47'

9/23/2020

First League · Round 11Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Torpedo Moskva41%

×Draw28%

Nizhny Novgorod30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.03

Torpedo Moskva

1.25

Nizhny Novgorod

1.03

Torpedo Moskva creates 21% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 54 away

1.56

creates per match

1.20

0.86

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.56

Nizhny Novgorod

1.20

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

0.86

Nizhny Novgorod

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

70%

Torpedo Moskva or Nizhny Novgorod

72%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

59%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

18%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

71%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

36%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

13%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

64%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

28%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

58%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.86 · 105 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.56 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.20 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

41%

level

28%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

30%

Torpedo Moskva at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Astemir Gordyushenko

34'

Andrey Evdokimov

46'

I. Lebedenko← A. Gordyushenko

47'

52'

55'

57'

59'

61'

65'

66'

67'

K. Kertanov← A. Ryazantsev

72'

P. Komolov← M. Sultonov

76'

T. Suleymanov

83'

D. Proshlyakov← I. Berkovskiy

85'

M. Osinov← I. Temnikov

87'

A. Stavpets← A. Popov

89'

M. Gashchenkov← A. Sharipov

90'

Mikhail Osinov

90+2'

I. Gorbunov← T. Suleymanov

Torpedo3-4-3

Nizhny3-4-3

93

⚽

▼

Suleymano

14

⚽

▼

Sultonov

8

▼

Popov

37

▼

Sharipov

41

Sapeta

11

▼

7

24

3

5

1

47

99

16

44

72

▼

Gordyushe

52

Netfullin

4

▼

Eliseev

7

▼

Ryazantse

90

Kalmykov

8

▼

Berkovski

9

Adaev

Manager: S. Ignashevich

46'▲I. Lebedenko←▼A. Gordyushenko

55'▲R. Magal←▼A. Eliseev

67'▲K. Kertanov←▼A. Ryazantsev

83'▲D. Proshlyakov←▼I. Berkovskiy

Torpedo Moskva substitutes

10Lebedenko28Magal11Kertanov61Proshlyakov6Shustikov15Orekhov24Lyakh29Porutchikov49Proshkin51Botnar77Sundukov

Manager: R. Evdokimov

72'▲P. Komolov←▼M. Sultonov

85'▲M. Osinov←▼I. Temnikov

87'▲A. Stavpets←▼A. Popov

89'▲M. Gashchenkov←▼A. Sharipov

90+2'▲I. Gorbunov←▼T. Suleymanov

Nizhny Novgorod substitutes

20Komolov81Osinov61Stavpets6Gashchenkov17Gorbunov10Fedchuk23Zuykov98Yugaldin99Sysuev

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod

Nizhny Novgorod beat Torpedo Moskva 2-0 in First League on September 23, 2020.

Goals: M. Sultonov (47'), T. Suleymanov (76').

The match was played at Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki in Moskva.

Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Nizhny Novgorod