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Torpedo Moskva vs Metallurg Lipetsk — First League 2018

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
7 – 1
HT: 5 – 1
Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
8/29/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Torpedo Moskva60%
×Draw22%
Metallurg Lipetsk18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.85
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.90

Torpedo Moskva creates 106% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 19 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.55
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.95

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.85
Metallurg Lipetsk
2.16

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
82%
Torpedo Moskva or Metallurg Lipetsk
78%
Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk
40%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
35%
Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
84%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
55%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
28%
Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
59%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
23%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
77%
Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.85

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.95 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
60%
level
22%
Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
18%

Torpedo Moskva at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Torpedo Moskva 7–1 Metallurg Lipetsk

Torpedo Moskva beat Metallurg Lipetsk 7-1 in First League on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki in Moskva.