Torpedo Moskva 2–3 Leningradets: Result & Stats

Torpedo Moskva

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Leningradets

I. Stefanovich 63', 14' (pen)

A. Yakovlev 69'

N. Rozmanov 38'

K. Kolesnichenko 26' (pen)

10/1/2023

First League · Round 12Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Torpedo Moskva49%

×Draw28%

Leningradets23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchLeningradets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.84

Torpedo Moskva

1.36

Leningradets

0.84

Torpedo Moskva creates 62% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 18 away

1.55

creates per match

0.83

0.85

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.55

Leningradets

0.83

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

0.85

Leningradets

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Leningradets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Leningradets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

77%

Torpedo Moskva or Leningradets

72%

Draw or Leningradets

51%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

23%

Leningradets wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

74%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

39%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

16%

Leningradets 1+ goals

57%

Leningradets 2+ goals

21%

Leningradets 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

68%

Leningradets (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

Leningradets away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + Leningradets defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.36

Leningradets attack 0.83 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

49%

level

28%

Leningradets scores more

23%

Torpedo Moskva at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

I. StefanovichPenalty

25'

Nikita Kalugin

26'

K. KolesnichenkoPenalty

30'

38'

40'

59'

63'

64'

M. Markin← N. Rozmanov

69'

A. Yakovlev

72'

G. Gongadze← I. Lebedenko

72'

R. Yuzepchuk← I. Gorbunov

72'

V. Gorulev← V. Shepelev

72'

V. Sirotov← M. Bachinskiy

82'

V. Mikushin← S. Kostin

88'

Yordy Reyna

90+1'

Ilya Stefanovich

Statistics

TorpedoLeningradets

Overview

3Corners1

Discipline

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

First League: Torpedo Moskva 2–3 Leningradets

Leningradets beat Torpedo Moskva 3-2 in First League on October 1, 2023.

Goals: I. Stefanovich (14' pen, 63'), K. Kolesnichenko (26' pen), N. Rozmanov (38'), A. Yakovlev (69').

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.

Torpedo Moskva vs Leningradets — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

First League: Torpedo Moskva 2–3 Leningradets