Torpedo Moskva 1–1 Kuban Kholding: Result & Stats

Torpedo Moskva

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kuban Kholding

10/29/2025

Cup · FinalArena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Torpedo Moskva23%

×Draw25%

Kuban Kholding53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchKuban Kholding

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.65

Torpedo Moskva

1.00

Kuban Kholding

1.65

Kuban Kholding creates 65% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.10

creates per match

2.00

1.30

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.10

Kuban Kholding

2.00

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.30

Kuban Kholding

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Kuban Kholding →

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

47%

Torpedo Moskva or Kuban Kholding

75%

Draw or Kuban Kholding

77%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

63%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

26%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals

81%

Kuban Kholding 2+ goals

49%

Kuban Kholding 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

30%

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.10 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.00

Kuban Kholding attack 2.00 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

23%

level

25%

Kuban Kholding scores more

53%

Kuban Kholding at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff