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Torpedo Moskva vs FK Sokol Saratov — First League 2018

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
8/5/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Stadion Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Torpedo Moskva55%
×Draw26%
FK Sokol Saratov19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.54
FK Sokol Saratov
0.80

Torpedo Moskva creates 93% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 52 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.55
FK Sokol Saratov
0.75

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.85
FK Sokol Saratov
1.54

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
81%
Torpedo Moskva or FK Sokol Saratov
74%
Draw or FK Sokol Saratov
45%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
29%
FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
79%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
45%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
20%
FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
55%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
19%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
74%
FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.75 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
55%
level
26%
FK Sokol Saratov scores more
19%

Torpedo Moskva at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Torpedo Moskva 0–1 FK Sokol Saratov

FK Sokol Saratov beat Torpedo Moskva 1-0 in First League on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Luzhniki in Moskva.