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FK Sokol Saratov vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
A. Golijanin 18'
9/20/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov27%
×Draw30%
Torpedo Moskva44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sokol Saratov
0.86
Torpedo Moskva
1.19

Torpedo Moskva creates 38% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 104 away

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov
0.67
Torpedo Moskva
1.22

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov
1.16
Torpedo Moskva
1.05

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw
56%
FK Sokol Saratov or Torpedo Moskva
70%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
73%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
9%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
58%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
21%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
6%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
70%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
33%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
38%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.67 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.86

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more
27%
level
30%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
44%

Torpedo Moskva at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
A. Golijanin
59'
S. Gribov← A. Golijanin
68'
A. Mukhin← A. Sinyak
68'
V. Lazarev← R. Daurov
72'
V. Shitov← A. Lomakin
72'
D. Bakic← A. Yushin
77'
Amir Kahrimanović
77'
Artur Galoyan
78'
K. Nikitin← A. Kahrimanovic
78'
G. Bakharev← R. Ermolin
87'
G. Shevchenko← M. Curic
87'
A. Chupayov← V. Churilov
90+3'
Artem Bykov
90+1'
Mikhail Levashov

Statistics

FKTorpedo
Discipline
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

First League: FK Sokol Saratov 1–0 Torpedo Moskva

FK Sokol Saratov beat Torpedo Moskva 1-0 in First League on September 20, 2025.

Goals: A. Golijanin (18').

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Saratov.