Torpedo Moskva vs FK Neftekhimik

Torpedo Moskva

CANC

00:00

FK Neftekhimik

4/18/2020

First League · Round 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Torpedo Moskva45%

×Draw27%

FK Neftekhimik27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchFK Neftekhimik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.99

Torpedo Moskva

1.36

FK Neftekhimik

0.99

Torpedo Moskva creates 37% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 123 away

1.56

creates per match

1.11

0.86

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.56

FK Neftekhimik

1.11

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

0.86

FK Neftekhimik

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

FK Neftekhimik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

73%

Torpedo Moskva or FK Neftekhimik

73%

Draw or FK Neftekhimik

55%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

21%

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

74%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

39%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

16%

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

63%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

26%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

62%

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.86 · 105 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.56 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.36

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.11 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

45%

level

27%

FK Neftekhimik scores more

27%

Torpedo Moskva at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff