FK Neftekhimik 0–1 Torpedo Moskva: Result & Stats

FK Neftekhimik

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Torpedo Moskva

Y. Guzmán 76'

3/15/2025

First League · Round 24Stadion Neftekhimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

FK Neftekhimik38%

×Draw29%

Torpedo Moskva33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK NeftekhimikExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.08

FK Neftekhimik

1.19

Torpedo Moskva

1.08

FK Neftekhimik creates 10% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 104 away

1.33

creates per match

1.22

0.95

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik

1.33

Torpedo Moskva

1.22

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik

0.95

Torpedo Moskva

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw

67%

FK Neftekhimik or Torpedo Moskva

71%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

62%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

16%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

70%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

33%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

12%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

66%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

29%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

54%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 122 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.33 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more

38%

level

29%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

33%

FK Neftekhimik at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

Ruslan Baytukov

46'

G. Alykulov← M. Maksimov

46'

A. Chupaev← R. Chervyakov

47'

Aleksandr Chupayov

54'

M. Laykin← K. Shiltsov

54'

K. Morozov← D. Emelyanov

54'

R. Denisov← D. Rodin

64'

Alesson← I. Manelov

64'

Y. Guzmán← I. Gorbunov

66'

E. Valiakhmetov← S. Aliev

75'

Aleksandr Kakhidze

76'

Y. Guzmán

82'

R. Magomedov← N. Abdokov

90+7'

Ravil Netfullin

Statistics

FKTorpedo

Discipline

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0