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Torpedo Moskva vs FC Armavir — First League 2018

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Armavir
FC Armavir
8/4/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Stadion Torpedo im. Eduarda Strel'tsova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Torpedo Moskva52%
×Draw27%
FC Armavir21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.40
FC Armavir
0.77

Torpedo Moskva creates 82% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 32 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.55
FC Armavir
0.69

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.85
FC Armavir
1.25

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
FC Armavir+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

FC Armavir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
79%
Torpedo Moskva or FC Armavir
73%
Draw or FC Armavir
48%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
26%
FC Armavir wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
75%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
41%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
17%
FC Armavir 1+ goals
54%
FC Armavir 2+ goals
18%
FC Armavir 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
72%
FC Armavir (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

FC Armavir away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + FC Armavir defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.40

FC Armavir attack 0.69 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
52%
level
27%
FC Armavir scores more
21%

Torpedo Moskva at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs FC Armavir

Torpedo Moskva beat FC Armavir 2-1 in First League on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo im. Eduarda Strel'tsova in Moskva.