Torpedo Moskva 2–0 Fakel Voronezh: Result & Stats

Torpedo Moskva

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fakel Voronezh

R. Netfullin 90+1'

I. Kukharchuk 34'

4/8/2023

Premier League · Round 22Stadion Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Torpedo Moskva31%

×Draw27%

Fakel Voronezh42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchFakel Voronezh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.37

Torpedo Moskva

1.14

Fakel Voronezh

1.37

Fakel Voronezh creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 46 away

0.60

creates per match

0.74

2.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

0.60

Fakel Voronezh

0.74

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

2.00

Fakel Voronezh

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Fakel Voronezh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

58%

Torpedo Moskva or Fakel Voronezh

73%

Draw or Fakel Voronezh

69%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

13%

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

68%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

32%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

11%

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

75%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

40%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

43%

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 0.60 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.14

Fakel Voronezh attack 0.74 + Torpedo Moskva defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

31%

level

27%

Fakel Voronezh scores more

42%

Fakel Voronezh at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

O. Kozhemyakin

Torpedo Moskva · D

8.5

Match Events

9'

Artem Samsonov

34'

I. Kukharchuk↳ A. Ryazantsev

46'

R. Magal← M. Brahimi

46'

K. Appaev← E. Markov

52'

Georgi Gongadze

59'

R. Rabeï← R. Akbashev

59'

M. Maksimov← G. Gongadze

61'

I. Stefanovich← I. Kukharchuk

61'

B. Roganović← A. Samsonov

71'

R. Netfullin← M. Ćurić

76'

Bojan Roganović

79'

M. Ivakhnov← I. Alshin

90+3'

André Felipe← Y. Reyna

90+1'

R. Netfullin↳ D. Karaev

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TorpedoFakel

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots14

5Corners2

8Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots14

4On Target4

4Off Target4

4Blocked6

6Inside Box8

6Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

397Total Passes407

262Accurate Passes263

66%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4