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Torpedo Moskva vs Fakel Voronezh — First League 2018

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
9/11/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Torpedo Moskva46%
×Draw27%
Fakel Voronezh27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.43
Fakel Voronezh
1.02

Torpedo Moskva creates 40% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 89 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.55
Fakel Voronezh
1.20

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.85
Fakel Voronezh
1.31

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Fakel Voronezh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
73%
Torpedo Moskva or Fakel Voronezh
73%
Draw or Fakel Voronezh
54%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
23%
Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
76%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
42%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
17%
Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
64%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
27%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
63%
Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.20 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
46%
level
27%
Fakel Voronezh scores more
27%

Torpedo Moskva at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Fakel Voronezh

Torpedo Moskva and Fakel Voronezh drew 2-2 in First League on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki in Moskva.