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Torpedo Moskva vs Dolgoprudny — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
4 – 0
Dolgoprudny
Dolgoprudny
6/26/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Torpedo im. Eduarda Strel'tsova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Torpedo Moskva65%
×Draw20%
Dolgoprudny14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
2.02
Dolgoprudny
0.81

Torpedo Moskva creates 149% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
2.38
Dolgoprudny
0.50

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.13
Dolgoprudny
1.67

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Dolgoprudny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
86%
Torpedo Moskva or Dolgoprudny
80%
Draw or Dolgoprudny
35%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
41%
Dolgoprudny wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
87%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
60%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
33%
Dolgoprudny 1+ goals
56%
Dolgoprudny 2+ goals
19%
Dolgoprudny 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
82%
Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Dolgoprudny away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 2.38 + Dolgoprudny defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.02

Dolgoprudny attack 0.50 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
65%
level
20%
Dolgoprudny scores more
14%

Torpedo Moskva at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Dolgoprudny

Torpedo Moskva beat Dolgoprudny 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo im. Eduarda Strel'tsova in Moskva.