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Torpedo Moskva vs Chelyabinsk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
M. Maksimov 50'
A. Yushin 25'
A. Nikitenkov 86'
2/19/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Titanic Training Camp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Torpedo Moskva53%
×Draw24%
Chelyabinsk23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.69
Chelyabinsk
1.01

Torpedo Moskva creates 67% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
2.38
Chelyabinsk
0.90

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
1.13
Chelyabinsk
1.00

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Chelyabinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
77%
Torpedo Moskva or Chelyabinsk
76%
Draw or Chelyabinsk
47%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
29%
Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
82%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
50%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
24%
Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
64%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
27%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
70%
Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 2.38 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Chelyabinsk attack 0.90 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
53%
level
24%
Chelyabinsk scores more
23%

Torpedo Moskva at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
A. Yushin
50'
M. Maksimov
86'
A. Nikitenkov
Torpedo
Chelyabinsk
O. Kononov
Manager: O. Kononov
R. Pilipchuk
Manager: R. Pilipchuk

Friendlies Clubs: Torpedo Moskva 2–1 Chelyabinsk

Torpedo Moskva beat Chelyabinsk 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 19, 2025.

Goals: A. Yushin (25'), M. Maksimov (50'), A. Nikitenkov (86').

The match was played at Titanic Training Camp in Belek.