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Torpedo Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny — Premier League 2018

Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Grozny
5/6/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Stadion Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Torpedo Moskva26%
×Draw26%
Akhmat Grozny48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva
1.03
Akhmat Grozny
1.50

Akhmat Grozny creates 46% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 121 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva
0.60
Akhmat Grozny
1.01

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva
2.00
Akhmat Grozny
1.47

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par
Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Akhmat Grozny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw
52%
Torpedo Moskva or Akhmat Grozny
74%
Draw or Akhmat Grozny
74%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
10%
Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
64%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
28%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
9%
Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals
78%
Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
44%
Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
35%
Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Akhmat Grozny away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 0.60 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.03

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.01 + Torpedo Moskva defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more
26%
level
26%
Akhmat Grozny scores more
48%

Akhmat Grozny at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny

Akhmat Grozny beat Torpedo Moskva 5-1 in Premier League on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Luzhniki in Moskva.