Torpedo Moskva U19 0–0 Kuban U19: Result & Stats

Torpedo Moskva U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kuban U19

3/17/2023

Youth Championship · Lower Table Round - 2Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Torpedo Moskva U1932%

×Draw29%

Kuban U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo Moskva U19Expected goals in this matchKuban U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.18

Torpedo Moskva U19

1.03

Kuban U19

1.18

Kuban U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.21

creates per match

1.00

1.36

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva U19

1.21

Kuban U19

1.00

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva U19

1.36

Kuban U19

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva U19+0.00on par

Kuban U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva U19 ↓

Kuban U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva U19 or draw

61%

Torpedo Moskva U19 or Kuban U19

71%

Draw or Kuban U19

68%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva U19 wins by 2+

12%

Kuban U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva U19 1+ goals

64%

Torpedo Moskva U19 2+ goals

28%

Torpedo Moskva U19 3+ goals

9%

Kuban U19 1+ goals

69%

Kuban U19 2+ goals

33%

Kuban U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Kuban U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Kuban U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva U19 attack 1.21 + Kuban U19 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Kuban U19 attack 1.00 + Torpedo Moskva U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Torpedo Moskva U19 scores more

32%

level

29%

Kuban U19 scores more

39%

Kuban U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kuban U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff