Torpedo Moskva II 1–2 Yenisey II: Result & Stats

Torpedo Moskva II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Yenisey II

9/30/2023

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Torpedo Moskva II48%

×Draw24%

Yenisey II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo Moskva IIExpected goals in this matchYenisey II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.20

Torpedo Moskva II

1.65

Yenisey II

1.20

Torpedo Moskva II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 76 away

1.00

creates per match

0.92

1.48

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva II

1.00

Yenisey II

0.92

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva II

1.48

Yenisey II

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par

Yenisey II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva II ↓

Yenisey II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva II or draw

72%

Torpedo Moskva II or Yenisey II

76%

Draw or Yenisey II

52%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+

25%

Yenisey II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals

81%

Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals

49%

Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals

23%

Yenisey II 1+ goals

70%

Yenisey II 2+ goals

34%

Yenisey II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)

63%

Yenisey II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

Yenisey II away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.30 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.00 + Yenisey II defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

Yenisey II attack 0.92 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Torpedo Moskva II scores more

48%

level

24%

Yenisey II scores more

28%

Torpedo Moskva II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff