Torpedo Moskva II 1–1 Spartak Kostroma

Torpedo Moskva II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Spartak Kostroma

11/9/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Torpedo Moskva II26%

×Draw25%

Spartak Kostroma49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo Moskva IIExpected goals in this matchSpartak Kostroma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.55

Torpedo Moskva II

1.06

Spartak Kostroma

1.55

Spartak Kostroma creates 46% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 16 away

1.00

creates per match

1.63

1.48

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva II

1.00

Spartak Kostroma

1.63

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva II

1.48

Spartak Kostroma

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva II ↓

Spartak Kostroma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva II or draw

51%

Torpedo Moskva II or Spartak Kostroma

75%

Draw or Spartak Kostroma

74%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+

10%

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals

65%

Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals

29%

Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals

9%

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

79%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

46%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)

35%

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.00 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.63 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Torpedo Moskva II scores more

26%

level

25%

Spartak Kostroma scores more

49%

Spartak Kostroma at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff