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Torpedo Moskva II vs Murom — Second League - Group 2 2020

Torpedo Moskva II
Torpedo Moskva II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Murom
Murom
10/20/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Torpedo Moskva II31%
×Draw28%
Murom42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva II
1.08
Murom
1.30

Murom creates 20% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 55 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva II
1.00
Murom
1.13

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva II
1.48
Murom
1.16

finishing

Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par
Murom+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva II ↓

Murom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva II or draw
58%
Torpedo Moskva II or Murom
72%
Draw or Murom
69%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+
12%
Murom wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals
66%
Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals
29%
Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals
10%
Murom 1+ goals
73%
Murom 2+ goals
37%
Murom 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)
43%
Murom (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

Murom away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.00 + Murom defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Murom attack 1.13 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torpedo Moskva II scores more
31%
level
28%
Murom scores more
42%

Murom at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Murom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Torpedo Moskva II 1–0 Murom

Torpedo Moskva II beat Murom 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on October 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Dolgoprudny.