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Torpedo Moskva II vs Dinamo Kirov — Second League - Group 2 2020

Torpedo Moskva II
Torpedo Moskva II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Kirov
Dinamo Kirov
8/13/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Torpedo Moskva II33%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Kirov41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva II
1.22
Dinamo Kirov
1.41

Dinamo Kirov creates 16% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 9 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva II
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.33

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva II
1.48
Dinamo Kirov
1.44

finishing

Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par
Dinamo Kirov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva II ↓

Dinamo Kirov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva II or draw
59%
Torpedo Moskva II or Dinamo Kirov
74%
Draw or Dinamo Kirov
67%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+
14%
Dinamo Kirov wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals
70%
Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals
34%
Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals
12%
Dinamo Kirov 1+ goals
76%
Dinamo Kirov 2+ goals
41%
Dinamo Kirov 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)
44%
Dinamo Kirov (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

Dinamo Kirov away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.00 + Dinamo Kirov defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Dinamo Kirov attack 1.33 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Torpedo Moskva II scores more
33%
level
26%
Dinamo Kirov scores more
41%

Dinamo Kirov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dinamo Kirov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva II vs Dinamo Kirov

Dinamo Kirov beat Torpedo Moskva II 4-0 in Second League - Group 2 on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Dolgoprudny.