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Torpedo Miass vs Veles — League #1061 2026

Torpedo Miass
Torpedo Miass
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Veles
Veles
O. Smirnov 67', 27'
6/14/2025League #1061League #1061 · Spring Season Gold - 18Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Torpedo Miass36%
×Draw26%
Veles38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Miass
1.29
Veles
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Torpedo Miass
0.75
Veles
1.67

allows per match

Torpedo Miass
1.00
Veles
1.83

finishing

Torpedo Miass+0.00on par
Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Miass ↓

Veles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Torpedo Miass or draw
62%
Torpedo Miass or Veles
74%
Draw or Veles
64%

Winning margin

Torpedo Miass wins by 2+
16%
Veles wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Torpedo Miass 1+ goals
72%
Torpedo Miass 2+ goals
37%
Torpedo Miass 3+ goals
14%
Veles 1+ goals
74%
Veles 2+ goals
38%
Veles 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)
49%
Veles (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Miass at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Veles away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Miass attack 0.75 + Veles defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.29

Veles attack 1.67 + Torpedo Miass defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Torpedo Miass scores more
36%
level
26%
Veles scores more
38%

Veles at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Veles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
O. Smirnov
39'
R. Sosranov
51'
E. Lopatko
67'
O. Smirnov
72'
G. Sarkisyan← G. Sarkisyan
72'
F. Chapliev← F. Chapliev
72'
G. Borisenko← I. Badrtdinov
72'
E. Pesikov← M. Nasibov
72'
D. Pavlov← D. Pavlov
78'
I. Molteninov← V. Fedosyuk
79'
A. Arustamyan← A. Arustamyan
82'
Y. Ivakin← Y. Ivakin
82'
R. Chobanov← H. Dzhamuev
85'
A. Shvedov← A. Shvedov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Miass vs Veles

Veles beat Torpedo Miass 2-0 in League #1061 on June 14, 2025.

Goals: O. Smirnov (27', 67').

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Miass.