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Torpedo Miass vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Torpedo Miass
Torpedo Miass
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
7/27/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 2Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Torpedo Miass48%
×Draw26%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Miass
1.53
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.08

Torpedo Miass creates 42% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

creates per match

Torpedo Miass
1.06
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.22

allows per match

Torpedo Miass
0.94
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
2.00

finishing

Torpedo Miass+0.00on par
Khimik Dzerzhinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Miass ↓

Khimik Dzerzhinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Torpedo Miass or draw
73%
Torpedo Miass or Khimik Dzerzhinsk
74%
Draw or Khimik Dzerzhinsk
52%

Winning margin

Torpedo Miass wins by 2+
24%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Torpedo Miass 1+ goals
78%
Torpedo Miass 2+ goals
45%
Torpedo Miass 3+ goals
20%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1+ goals
66%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2+ goals
29%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)
64%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Miass at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Khimik Dzerzhinsk away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Miass attack 1.06 + Khimik Dzerzhinsk defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.53

Khimik Dzerzhinsk attack 1.22 + Torpedo Miass defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Torpedo Miass scores more
48%
level
26%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk scores more
27%

Torpedo Miass at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Torpedo Miass will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Miass vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk

Khimik Dzerzhinsk beat Torpedo Miass 4-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Miass.