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Torpedo Miass vs Irtysh Omsk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Torpedo Miass
Torpedo Miass
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
8/25/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 6Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Torpedo Miass40%
×Draw29%
Irtysh Omsk31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Miass
1.22
Irtysh Omsk
1.03

Torpedo Miass creates 18% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Torpedo Miass
1.06
Irtysh Omsk
1.13

allows per match

Torpedo Miass
0.94
Irtysh Omsk
1.38

finishing

Torpedo Miass+0.00on par
Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Miass ↓

Irtysh Omsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Torpedo Miass or draw
69%
Torpedo Miass or Irtysh Omsk
71%
Draw or Irtysh Omsk
60%

Winning margin

Torpedo Miass wins by 2+
18%
Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Torpedo Miass 1+ goals
70%
Torpedo Miass 2+ goals
34%
Torpedo Miass 3+ goals
12%
Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
64%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
28%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)
57%
Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Miass at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Miass attack 1.06 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.22

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.13 + Torpedo Miass defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Torpedo Miass scores more
40%
level
29%
Irtysh Omsk scores more
31%

Torpedo Miass at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Torpedo Miass will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Torpedo Miass 0–1 Irtysh Omsk

Irtysh Omsk beat Torpedo Miass 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Miass.