Irtysh Omsk 1–2 Torpedo Miass: Result & Stats

Irtysh Omsk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Torpedo Miass

B. Sadykov 53'

V. Bykov 86'

M. Kazimir 49'

10/19/2024

Second League A - Division A Silver · Fall Season Silver - 14Krytyj futbolnyj Manesh MU SK Krasnaya zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Irtysh Omsk31%

×Draw34%

Torpedo Miass35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Irtysh OmskExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Miass

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

0.89

Irtysh Omsk

0.83

Torpedo Miass

0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

0.78

creates per match

0.88

0.89

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk

0.78

Torpedo Miass

0.88

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk

0.89

Torpedo Miass

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Torpedo Miass+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Torpedo Miass →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–116%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw

65%

Irtysh Omsk or Torpedo Miass

66%

Draw or Torpedo Miass

69%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

10%

Torpedo Miass wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

56%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

20%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

5%

Torpedo Miass 1+ goals

59%

Torpedo Miass 2+ goals

22%

Torpedo Miass 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

47%

Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 0.78, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Torpedo Miass away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.78 + Torpedo Miass defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Torpedo Miass attack 0.88 + Irtysh Omsk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more

31%

level

34%

Torpedo Miass scores more

35%

Torpedo Miass at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Torpedo Miass will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

R. Yanushkovskiy

42'

V. Sholokh

46'

E. Pozdnyakov← M. Rudnev

46'

V. Ulyanovskiy← V. Palkin

49'

M. Kazimir

50'

K. Saraev

53'

B. Sadykov

72'

V. Bykov← F. Chapliev

73'

D. Prutov

76'

K. Shokhin← R. Yanushkovskiy

78'

S. Serchenkov← M. Kazimir

83'

N. Zhustyev← A. Geryugov

86'

V. Bykov

90'

I. Maslennikov← D. Zamyatin

Irtysh

Torpedo

27

Kovalev

5

Lopatko

4

Adeniyi

18

▼

Palkin

7

▼

Zamyatin

23

Prutov

22

Kuzmin

74

⚽

▼

Kazimir

14

Amelin

99

▼

Rudnev

21

▼

Chapliev

54

Matyunin

44

⚽

3

6

23

7

▼

89

11

19

59

10

▼

Yanushkov

Manager: M. Mishatkin

76'▲K. Shokhin←▼R. Yanushkovskiy

83'▲N. Zhustyev←▼A. Geryugov

Irtysh Omsk substitutes

31Shokhin41Zhustyev4Ivankov16Raifegerste17Shleermakher22Shcherbakov25Galochkin49Korkin60Poletaev97Dol98Radchenko

Manager: V. Fedorov

46'▲E. Pozdnyakov←▼M. Rudnev

46'▲V. Ulyanovskiy←▼V. Palkin

72'▲V. Bykov←▼F. Chapliev

78'▲S. Serchenkov←▼M. Kazimir

90'▲I. Maslennikov←▼D. Zamyatin

Torpedo Miass substitutes

19Pozdnyakov77Ulyanovskiy49Bykov8Serchenkov20Maslennikov33Fedosyuk81Bogiev