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Torpedo Miass vs Avangard Kursk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Torpedo Miass
Torpedo Miass
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
9/6/2025Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 8Trud stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Torpedo Miass37%
×Draw31%
Avangard Kursk32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Miass
1.03
Avangard Kursk
0.94

Torpedo Miass creates 10% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Torpedo Miass
1.06
Avangard Kursk
0.94

allows per match

Torpedo Miass
0.94
Avangard Kursk
1.00

finishing

Torpedo Miass+0.00on par
Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Miass ↓

Avangard Kursk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Torpedo Miass or draw
68%
Torpedo Miass or Avangard Kursk
69%
Draw or Avangard Kursk
63%

Winning margin

Torpedo Miass wins by 2+
14%
Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Torpedo Miass 1+ goals
64%
Torpedo Miass 2+ goals
28%
Torpedo Miass 3+ goals
9%
Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
61%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
24%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)
53%
Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Miass at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Miass attack 1.06 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Avangard Kursk attack 0.94 + Torpedo Miass defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Torpedo Miass scores more
37%
level
31%
Avangard Kursk scores more
32%

Torpedo Miass at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Torpedo Miass will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Miass vs Avangard Kursk

Torpedo Miass beat Avangard Kursk 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on September 6, 2025.

The match was played at Trud stadium in Miass.