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Torpedo BelAZ II vs Slonim — 1. Division 2018

Torpedo BelAZ II
Torpedo BelAZ II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Slonim
Slonim
4/14/20241. Division1. Division · Round 2Stadyen Tarpeda Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torpedo BelAZ II32%
×Draw23%
Slonim45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo BelAZ II
1.48
Slonim
1.79

Slonim creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 133 away

creates per match

Torpedo BelAZ II
1.06
Slonim
0.94

allows per match

Torpedo BelAZ II
2.65
Slonim
1.91

finishing

Torpedo BelAZ II+0.00on par
Slonim+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo BelAZ II ↓

Slonim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Torpedo BelAZ II or draw
55%
Torpedo BelAZ II or Slonim
77%
Draw or Slonim
68%

Winning margin

Torpedo BelAZ II wins by 2+
15%
Slonim wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Torpedo BelAZ II 1+ goals
77%
Torpedo BelAZ II 2+ goals
43%
Torpedo BelAZ II 3+ goals
19%
Slonim 1+ goals
83%
Slonim 2+ goals
53%
Slonim 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Torpedo BelAZ II (draw refunded)
42%
Slonim (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo BelAZ II at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Slonim away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo BelAZ II attack 1.06 + Slonim defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.48

Slonim attack 0.94 + Torpedo BelAZ II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Torpedo BelAZ II scores more
32%
level
23%
Slonim scores more
45%

Slonim at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Slonim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo BelAZ II vs Slonim

Slonim beat Torpedo BelAZ II 3-2 in 1. Division on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Tarpeda Iskusstvennoe pole in Zhodino.