Torpedo BelAZ II 0–3 Niva: Result & Stats

Torpedo BelAZ II

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Niva

9/21/2024

1. Division · Round 25Stadyen Tarpeda Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torpedo BelAZ II20%

×Draw20%

Niva60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo BelAZ IIExpected goals in this matchNiva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

2.29

Torpedo BelAZ II

1.27

Niva

2.29

Niva creates 80% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 58 away

1.06

creates per match

1.93

2.65

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Torpedo BelAZ II

1.06

Niva

1.93

allows per match

Torpedo BelAZ II

2.65

Niva

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo BelAZ II+0.00on par

Niva+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo BelAZ II ↓

Niva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Torpedo BelAZ II or draw

40%

Torpedo BelAZ II or Niva

80%

Draw or Niva

80%

Winning margin

Torpedo BelAZ II wins by 2+

8%

Niva wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Torpedo BelAZ II 1+ goals

72%

Torpedo BelAZ II 2+ goals

36%

Torpedo BelAZ II 3+ goals

14%

Niva 1+ goals

90%

Niva 2+ goals

66%

Niva 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Torpedo BelAZ II (draw refunded)

25%

Niva (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo BelAZ II at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Niva away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.48 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo BelAZ II attack 1.06 + Niva defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.27

Niva attack 1.93 + Torpedo BelAZ II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Torpedo BelAZ II scores more

20%

level

20%

Niva scores more

60%

Niva at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Niva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff