Torpedo BelAZ II 2–1 ML Vitebsk: Result & Stats

Torpedo BelAZ II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ML Vitebsk

6/3/2024

1. Division · Round 9Stadyen Tarpeda Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torpedo BelAZ II17%

×Draw18%

ML Vitebsk65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo BelAZ IIExpected goals in this matchML Vitebsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

2.50

Torpedo BelAZ II

1.23

ML Vitebsk

2.50

ML Vitebsk creates 103% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 45 away

1.06

creates per match

2.36

2.65

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Torpedo BelAZ II

1.06

ML Vitebsk

2.36

allows per match

Torpedo BelAZ II

2.65

ML Vitebsk

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo BelAZ II+0.00on par

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo BelAZ II ↓

ML Vitebsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Torpedo BelAZ II or draw

35%

Torpedo BelAZ II or ML Vitebsk

82%

Draw or ML Vitebsk

83%

Winning margin

Torpedo BelAZ II wins by 2+

7%

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Torpedo BelAZ II 1+ goals

71%

Torpedo BelAZ II 2+ goals

35%

Torpedo BelAZ II 3+ goals

13%

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals

92%

ML Vitebsk 2+ goals

71%

ML Vitebsk 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Torpedo BelAZ II (draw refunded)

21%

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo BelAZ II at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo BelAZ II attack 1.06 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

ML Vitebsk attack 2.36 + Torpedo BelAZ II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Torpedo BelAZ II scores more

17%

level

18%

ML Vitebsk scores more

65%

ML Vitebsk at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff