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Torpedo BelAZ II vs Lida — 1. Division 2018

Torpedo BelAZ II
Torpedo BelAZ II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lida
Lida
7/31/20241. Division1. Division · Round 17Stadyen Tarpeda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torpedo BelAZ II25%
×Draw21%
Lida54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo BelAZ II
1.33
Lida
2.05

Lida creates 54% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 128 away

creates per match

Torpedo BelAZ II
1.06
Lida
1.45

allows per match

Torpedo BelAZ II
2.65
Lida
1.59

finishing

Torpedo BelAZ II+0.00on par
Lida+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo BelAZ II ↓

Lida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Torpedo BelAZ II or draw
46%
Torpedo BelAZ II or Lida
79%
Draw or Lida
75%

Winning margin

Torpedo BelAZ II wins by 2+
10%
Lida wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Torpedo BelAZ II 1+ goals
74%
Torpedo BelAZ II 2+ goals
38%
Torpedo BelAZ II 3+ goals
15%
Lida 1+ goals
87%
Lida 2+ goals
61%
Lida 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Torpedo BelAZ II (draw refunded)
31%
Lida (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo BelAZ II at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Lida away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.59 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo BelAZ II attack 1.06 + Lida defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lida attack 1.45 + Torpedo BelAZ II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Torpedo BelAZ II scores more
25%
level
21%
Lida scores more
54%

Lida at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Torpedo BelAZ II 0–1 Lida

Lida beat Torpedo BelAZ II 1-0 in 1. Division on July 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Tarpeda in Zhodino.