Torpedo BelAZ II 0–3 ABFF U17: Result & Stats

Torpedo BelAZ II

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

ABFF U17

V. Skomarovskiy 90', 65'

G. Mikhaylov 82' (OG)

8/16/2024

1. Division · Round 20Stadyen Tarpeda Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torpedo BelAZ II28%

×Draw23%

ABFF U1749%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo BelAZ IIExpected goals in this matchABFF U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.85

Torpedo BelAZ II

1.35

ABFF U17

1.85

ABFF U17 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.06

creates per match

1.06

2.65

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Torpedo BelAZ II

1.06

ABFF U17

1.06

allows per match

Torpedo BelAZ II

2.65

ABFF U17

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo BelAZ II+0.00on par

ABFF U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo BelAZ II ↓

ABFF U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Torpedo BelAZ II or draw

51%

Torpedo BelAZ II or ABFF U17

77%

Draw or ABFF U17

72%

Winning margin

Torpedo BelAZ II wins by 2+

12%

ABFF U17 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Torpedo BelAZ II 1+ goals

74%

Torpedo BelAZ II 2+ goals

39%

Torpedo BelAZ II 3+ goals

15%

ABFF U17 1+ goals

84%

ABFF U17 2+ goals

55%

ABFF U17 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Torpedo BelAZ II (draw refunded)

36%

ABFF U17 (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo BelAZ II at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

ABFF U17 away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo BelAZ II attack 1.06 + ABFF U17 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.35

ABFF U17 attack 1.06 + Torpedo BelAZ II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Torpedo BelAZ II scores more

28%

level

23%

ABFF U17 scores more

49%

ABFF U17 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ABFF U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

K. Bogdanovich← I. Sivkov

46'

V. Skomarovskiy← N. Lyukevich

65'

V. Skomarovskiy

66'

A. Fomin← M. Ladutko

66'

M. Aleksandrov← P. Struk

72'

D. Volskiy← P. Shevchenko

78'

I. Gubarevich← D. Ovsyannikov

78'

P. Bezrukov← A. Derzhinskiy

82'

G. Yarotskiy← E. Egorov

82'

G. MikhaylovOwn goal

90'

V. Skomarovskiy

Torpedo

ABFF

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

Manager: V. Mikheev

46'▲K. Bogdanovich←▼I. Sivkov

66'▲A. Fomin←▼M. Ladutko

82'▲G. Yarotskiy←▼E. Egorov

Torpedo BelAZ II substitutes

BogdanovichFominYarotskiyKonchalenkoChizhZakharov

Manager: P. Evseenko

46'▲V. Skomarovskiy←▼N. Lyukevich

66'▲M. Aleksandrov←▼P. Struk

72'▲D. Volskiy←▼P. Shevchenko

78'▲I. Gubarevich←▼D. Ovsyannikov

78'▲P. Bezrukov←▼A. Derzhinskiy

ABFF U17 substitutes

SkomarovskiyAleksandrovVolskiyGubarevichBezrukovStanulGusevAutkoChuprinskiy