Toronto II 1–2 Philadelphia Union II

Toronto II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Philadelphia Union II

9/26/2025

MLS Next Pro · Round 38York Lions Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Toronto II36%

×Draw22%

Philadelphia Union II42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Toronto IIExpected goals in this matchPhiladelphia Union II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.89

Toronto II

1.72

Philadelphia Union II

1.89

Philadelphia Union II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 56 away

1.82

creates per match

1.95

1.82

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Toronto II

1.82

Philadelphia Union II

1.95

allows per match

Toronto II

1.82

Philadelphia Union II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toronto II+0.00on par

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto II ↓

Philadelphia Union II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Toronto II or draw

58%

Toronto II or Philadelphia Union II

78%

Draw or Philadelphia Union II

64%

Winning margin

Toronto II wins by 2+

18%

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Toronto II 1+ goals

82%

Toronto II 2+ goals

51%

Toronto II 3+ goals

25%

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals

85%

Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals

56%

Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Toronto II (draw refunded)

46%

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto II at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.82 · 51 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.61 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto II attack 1.82 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.72

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.95 + Toronto II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Toronto II scores more

36%

level

22%

Philadelphia Union II scores more

42%

Philadelphia Union II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff