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Toronto II vs Nashville — USL Championship 2018

Toronto II
Toronto II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nashville
Nashville
7/29/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 35Capelli Sport Stadium (Rochester, New York)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Toronto II23%
×Draw25%
Nashville52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toronto II
0.97
Nashville
1.61

Nashville creates 66% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 34 away

creates per match

Toronto II
1.00
Nashville
1.29

allows per match

Toronto II
1.93
Nashville
0.94

finishing

Toronto II+0.00on par
Nashville+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto II ↓

Nashville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Toronto II or draw
48%
Toronto II or Nashville
75%
Draw or Nashville
77%

Winning margin

Toronto II wins by 2+
8%
Nashville wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Toronto II 1+ goals
62%
Toronto II 2+ goals
25%
Toronto II 3+ goals
7%
Nashville 1+ goals
80%
Nashville 2+ goals
48%
Nashville 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Toronto II (draw refunded)
30%
Nashville (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Nashville away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto II attack 1.00 + Nashville defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Nashville attack 1.29 + Toronto II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Toronto II scores more
23%
level
25%
Nashville scores more
52%

Nashville at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nashville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Toronto II 2–0 Nashville

Toronto II beat Nashville 2-0 in USL Championship on July 29, 2018.

The match was played at Capelli Sport Stadium (Rochester, New York).