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Toronto II vs Lansing Ignite — USL League One 2019

Toronto II
Toronto II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lansing Ignite
Lansing Ignite
6/8/2019USL League OneUSL League One · Round 5BMO Training Ground & Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Toronto II42%
×Draw25%
Lansing Ignite33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toronto II
1.54
Lansing Ignite
1.34

Toronto II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

creates per match

Toronto II
1.57
Lansing Ignite
1.50

allows per match

Toronto II
1.18
Lansing Ignite
1.50

finishing

Toronto II+0.00on par
Lansing Ignite+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto II ↓

Lansing Ignite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Toronto II or draw
67%
Toronto II or Lansing Ignite
75%
Draw or Lansing Ignite
58%

Winning margin

Toronto II wins by 2+
21%
Lansing Ignite wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Toronto II 1+ goals
79%
Toronto II 2+ goals
45%
Toronto II 3+ goals
20%
Lansing Ignite 1+ goals
74%
Lansing Ignite 2+ goals
39%
Lansing Ignite 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Toronto II (draw refunded)
56%
Lansing Ignite (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto II at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Lansing Ignite away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto II attack 1.57 + Lansing Ignite defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Lansing Ignite attack 1.50 + Toronto II defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Toronto II scores more
42%
level
25%
Lansing Ignite scores more
33%

Toronto II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Toronto II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Toronto II vs Lansing Ignite

Toronto II beat Lansing Ignite 3-0 in USL League One on June 8, 2019.

The match was played at BMO Training Ground & Academy in Toronto, Ontario.