Toronto II 6–1 Inter Miami II: Result & Stats

Toronto II

FT

6 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Inter Miami II

7/21/2023

MLS Next Pro · Round 25York Lions Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Toronto II58%

×Draw20%

Inter Miami II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Toronto IIExpected goals in this matchInter Miami II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.35

Toronto II

2.27

Inter Miami II

1.35

Toronto II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 50 away

1.82

creates per match

0.88

1.82

allows per match

2.72

creates per match

Toronto II

1.82

Inter Miami II

0.88

allows per match

Toronto II

1.82

Inter Miami II

2.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toronto II+0.00on par

Inter Miami II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto II ↓

Inter Miami II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Toronto II or draw

78%

Toronto II or Inter Miami II

80%

Draw or Inter Miami II

42%

Winning margin

Toronto II wins by 2+

36%

Inter Miami II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Toronto II 1+ goals

90%

Toronto II 2+ goals

66%

Toronto II 3+ goals

39%

Inter Miami II 1+ goals

74%

Inter Miami II 2+ goals

39%

Inter Miami II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Toronto II (draw refunded)

72%

Inter Miami II (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto II at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.82 · 51 matches

Inter Miami II away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.72 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto II attack 1.82 + Inter Miami II defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.27

Inter Miami II attack 0.88 + Toronto II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Toronto II scores more

58%

level

20%

Inter Miami II scores more

22%

Toronto II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Toronto II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff